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Tesla Model S driver sleeping at the wheel on Autopilot

ChaosEngine says...

Actually, I would say I have a pretty good understanding of machine learning. I'm a software developer and while I don't work on machine learning day-to-day, I've certainly read a good deal about it.

As I've already said, Tesla's solution is not autonomous driving, completely agree on that (which is why I said the video is probably fake or the driver was just messing with people).

A stock market simulator is a different problem. It's trying to predict trends in an inherently chaotic system.

A self-driving car doesn't have to have perfect prediction, it can be reactive as well as predictive. Again, the point is not whether self-driving cars can be perfect. They don't have to be, they just have to be as good or better than the average human driver and frankly, that's a pretty low bar.

That said, I don't believe the first wave of self-driving vehicles will be passenger cars. It's far more likely to be freight (specifically small freight, i.e. courier vans).

I guess we'll see what happens.

RedSky said:

@ChaosEngine

I'm not sure you understand what machine learning is. As I said, the trigger for your child.runsInFront() is based on numerical inputs from sensors that is fed into a formula with certain parameters and coefficients. This has been optimized from many hours of driving data but ultimately it's not able to predict novel events as it can only optimize off existing data. There is a base level of error from bias-variance tradeoff to any model that you cannot avoid. It's not simply a matter of logging enough hours of driving. If that base error level is not low enough, then autonomous cars may never be deemed reliable to be unsupervised.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias-variance_tradeoff
Or specifically: http://scott.fortmann-roe.com/docs/docs/BiasVariance/biasvariance.png

It's the same reason that a stock market simulator using the same method (but different inputs) is not accurate. The difference would be that while 55% correct for the stock market may be sufficiently accurate and useful to be profitable, a driving algorithm needs to be near perfect. It's true that a sensor reaction time to someone braking unexpectedly may be much better than a human's and prevent a crash, so yes in certain cases autonomous driving will be safer but because of exceptional cases, but it may never be truly hands-off and you may always need to be ready to intervene, just like how Tesla works today (and why on a regulatory level it passed muster).

The combination of Google hyping its project and poor understanding of math or machine learning is why news reports just parrot Google's reliability numbers. Tesla also, has managed to convince many people that it already offers autonomous driving, but the auto-steer / cruise and changing lanes tech has existed for around a decade. Volvo, Mercedes and Audi all have similar features. There is a tendency to treat this technology as magical or inevitable when there are some unavoidable limitations behind it that may never be surmounted.

Tesla Model S driver sleeping at the wheel on Autopilot

ChaosEngine says...

Probably fake, but the technology is absolutely mature enough.

Self-driving cars are a solved problem. It's a matter of regulation, not research at this point.

In fact, once they reach critical mass, the problem actually becomes a lot easier from a technological standpoint. If all the cars on the road are AI, their behaviour becomes much more predictable, and a highway full of self-driving cars could easily communicate with each other, allowing increased traffic flow and reducing accidents.

Think about a simple scenario right now. You're driving in the fast lane on a multilane highway and your exit is coming up in a km or two. You need to cross 3 lanes, so you indicate and wait for a safe gap. You're completely dependent on the drivers in the other lane to let you in. But human nature being what it is, they might not want to let you in. Even if the first lane lets you through, the outer lanes have no idea what you want until they see you, so you have to repeat this manoeuvre a few times.

But with a highway of self-driving cars? Your car broadcasts its intentions on a localised network, and the other cars create a gap all the way to the exit. You move through and traffic resumes.

That Time You Were Completely Unaware A Bear Was Chasing You

ET found in New Mexico

Guess why this coffee break is worth sifting?

poolcleaner says...

If this IS real, I'm happy for the voyeuristic privilege -- but, damn, don't spoil the girl's fun!

Probably fake though.

Also, I may have to watch this every day or try my darndest to recreate the scenario. Wow. I just never considered this...

+50 to breast milk fetish!! Time to revisit the good ol Takashi Miike breast milk scenes.

It's almost never a good idea to show off on skis

Golden Eagle Snatches Kid

Customer at Internet Cafe Shoots Two Robbers

hpqp says...

Indeed, it doesn't seem like he even gave them a chance to drop their (probably fake) weapons and surrender, just bang bang, oh, still moving? running away? bang bang bang. Sad.

>> ^Kofi:

Bloodlust. Why keep shooting after they have fled? Crazy gun nuts.

Massive Slab of Concrete Falls on Parked Bus and Crushes It

ReverendTed says...

Staged? Maybe. (Probably?)
Fake? I'm not so sure.
If you were going to fake it, I'd think you'd change the name of the crane operator to avoid liability issues. Beelen (the name on the crane and the banner on the fence) is a Dutch demolition company.

I'm having a difficult time identifying the livery on the bus, but I think it's noteworthy that it's been stripped of anything that might identify it. Beyond that, it almost looks like the top edge has already been damaged even before the block drops on it.
The guy in green in the parking lot in the background seems entirely unfazed by the proceedings.
And yes, I do think it's also noteworthy that the video was posted to YouTube with comments disabled.

Dumbest Guy Ever or Why I Never Watch "Reality" TV

Voice Actor Recovers From TMD By Taking Ambien

bmacs27 says...

I'm glad I'm not alone. Whatever this is... it wasn't caused by a pulled tooth. My suspicion is he's practicing for a part, and wants doctors to coach him. My friend mentioned it could be psychogenic as well. It would be extremely strange however, and she agreed, most likely fake.

>> ^snoozedoctor:

Nope. Little, to no, chance of that either. Hypoxia from over sedation would more likely affect the frontal lobes. If he had hypoxia severe enough to produce brain stem injury, he would have associated severe cognitive dysfunction as well. If this guy's symptoms are real, he would appear to have a cerebellar/brainstem lesion, such as a tumor or stroke. Only problem with that is, Ambien would have no effect on it. A serious "reaction" to sedatives would be of the allergic type and would not result in such a focal deficit. Can't prove it, but I think this guy is either faking his symptoms (most likely), or has some type of psychogenic dysarthria.
>> ^ReverendTed:
>> ^snoozedoctor:
I say probably fake. TMJ dysfunction does not result in the dysarthria this guys appears to exhibit. Because it's symmetrical, it would almost have to be a central brain lesion of some sort. Nerve injury from dental extraction would be unilateral and involve sensory, not motor nerves. Whatever this guy exhibits, it has nothing to do with a dental extraction.
Unless they're using TMD to mean something other than Temporo-Mandibular Disorder, I agree that it is extremely unlikely that it's post-extraction trauma. Possible neurological defect as a result of over-sedation or reaction to the sedative?


Voice Actor Recovers From TMD By Taking Ambien

snoozedoctor says...

Nope. Little, to no, chance of that either. Hypoxia from over sedation would more likely affect the frontal lobes. If he had hypoxia severe enough to produce brain stem injury, he would have associated severe cognitive dysfunction as well. If this guy's symptoms are real, he would appear to have a cerebellar/brainstem lesion, such as a tumor or stroke. Only problem with that is, Ambien would have no effect on it. A serious "reaction" to sedatives would be of the allergic type and would not result in such a focal deficit. Can't prove it, but I think this guy is either faking his symptoms (most likely), or has some type of psychogenic dysarthria.
>> ^ReverendTed:

>> ^snoozedoctor:
I say probably fake. TMJ dysfunction does not result in the dysarthria this guys appears to exhibit. Because it's symmetrical, it would almost have to be a central brain lesion of some sort. Nerve injury from dental extraction would be unilateral and involve sensory, not motor nerves. Whatever this guy exhibits, it has nothing to do with a dental extraction.
Unless they're using TMD to mean something other than Temporo-Mandibular Disorder, I agree that it is extremely unlikely that it's post-extraction trauma. Possible neurological defect as a result of over-sedation or reaction to the sedative?

Voice Actor Recovers From TMD By Taking Ambien

ReverendTed says...

>> ^snoozedoctor:

I say probably fake. TMJ dysfunction does not result in the dysarthria this guys appears to exhibit. Because it's symmetrical, it would almost have to be a central brain lesion of some sort. Nerve injury from dental extraction would be unilateral and involve sensory, not motor nerves. Whatever this guy exhibits, it has nothing to do with a dental extraction.
Unless they're using TMD to mean something other than Temporo-Mandibular Disorder, I agree that it is extremely unlikely that it's post-extraction trauma. Possible neurological defect as a result of over-sedation or reaction to the sedative?

Voice Actor Recovers From TMD By Taking Ambien

snoozedoctor says...

I say probably fake. TMJ dysfunction does not result in the dysarthria this guys appears to exhibit. Because it's symmetrical, it would almost have to be a central brain lesion of some sort. Nerve injury from dental extraction would be unilateral and involve sensory, not motor nerves. Whatever this guy exhibits, it has nothing to do with a dental extraction.

Occupy Sesame Street!



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